Monday, April 28, 2014

QWC360NRG Natural Gas

The so-called boom in shale gas has yet to sustain positive cash flows for most gas producers.  With Henry Hub prices started to climb north of $4.50 MBTU the prospective of a pickup in drilling is drawing nearer this year, after a very cold winter which has depleted gas in storage.

What remains to be seen is whether or not the drilling activity this summer will be sufficient to restore the flow of gas into storage, in sufficient quantities to replenish supplies before next winter.  Any increase in demand (some of which is coming from a switch from coal powered generation facilities to gas fired generation facilities) will test the gas industry's ability to replenish inventory levels and provide a safe cushion for next winter's demand.

QWC360NRG Crude Oil

Easily accessible crude oil is rapidly becoming a scarce commodity.  The EROEI has decreased from 100:1 in the early 20th century to roughly 25:1 at present.  Light tight oil (LTO) plays are closer to 10:1 in scope, and oil sands production varies from 5:1 to a low of 3:1.

What remains to be seen is how quickly the LTO plays will manage to keep up their production numbers, as high grading consumes the most prolific plays.